5.5 The world's population in the future

• Aardrijkskunde
• Middelbare school
• havo, vwo
• Leerjaar 1

5.5 The world's population in the future

Learning objectives

After studying this section, you will be able to:

• Predict the size of earth’s future population
  
• Explain the main causes for earth’s changing population in the future

What will our population look like in 2050?

Will the Earth’s population keep on growing?

• More and more LEDCs are very slowly heading towards being stationary populations, in which birth rate and death rate are about the same.
• If LEDCs follow the path of MEDCs, earth’s population will stabilise at around 11 billion people in 2100. 
• Most countries in the world will then have the same situation as we know it today in the Netherlands: a low death rate and a low birth rate. 
• We call this process demographic transition = the transition from high birth and death rates to lower birth and death rates.

Carrying capacity

The bigger the earth’s population, the bigger the challenge to provide enough resources for everyone.

Is the earth’s carrying capacity, the maximum amount of people that can be sustainably supported, big enough?

Assumption, estimation, prediction

Theories for the future have to be based on reliable information. But how do you judge the quality of the evidence presented? If you read about assumptions, these are statements without any research having been done: they are really based on guesswork. In contrast, an estimation for the future is based on information from the past. Predictions are even stronger. If you make a prediction, then you have done research and you’re pretty sure about it. Knowing the difference between these terms is important, to be able to analyse the quality of the text you read.

Essence

Earth’s population will probably grow till 2100, when it will stabalise around 11 billion people. Most of the population growth will take place in LEDCs. As a consequence, LEDCs will have many more inhabitants than MEDCs in 2100. Asia will be most populated, having more than half of earth’s inhabitants. The faster LEDCs develop, the faster the world’s population growth will decrease. This is the process of demographic transition.

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