4.3 Causes of armed conflicts

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4.3 Causes of armed conflicts pt 1

Demographic

Economic

Cultural
Political

What do you remember about demographic structures? 

(last year material, Brush up)

Demographic structure

Differences and how to predict it

1. Demographic causes

What do you see here?

Demographic causes

• Demographic structure (“youth bulge”)
      - A high share of young people (15-24 yrs)

         - “Demographics can exacerbate conditions such as unemployment or                   poverty, resulting in a range of different security issues.” 

         - Urbanisation leads to concentration of problems.

         - Unemployment rates around 50 %

         - Consequences:

            Criminality; Political violence; Demonstrations / unrest; Breeding                          ground for terrorism; Migration (internal & international)

Brush up: Urbanisation

Consequences:

- Criminality

- Political violence

- Demonstrations / unrest

- Breeding ground for terrorism

- Migration (internal & international)

Example

Protests had begun in the eastern city of Atbara in Sudan in December 2018, reportedly against the tripling of the price of bread, but then broadened in focus and had spread rapidly throughout the country. By April 2019, protesters demanded an end to the 30-year rule of dictator Omar al-Bashir, who was removed from office on 11 April in a military coup. Protests continued, calling for power to be handed to civilian groups. On 3 June, government forces opened fire on unarmed protesters. Scores of people were killed and many more subject to further violence. Three days later the African Union suspended Sudan, in the midst of widespread international condemnation of the attack. The authorities sought to defuse protests by imposing blackouts, and shutting down the internet. Despite another severe crackdown on 30 June, the pro-democracy movement was eventually successful in signing a power-sharing agreement with the military, on 17 August.

(https://www.worldpressphoto.org/news/2020/contests-winners-announced )

"Food riots" because the food is becoming more and more expensive.

Global supply chain (globalisation) and its vulnerabilities

• Ukraine conflict --> lack of rural labour force / blocked ports --> lower exports of wheat --> rising global wheat prices
• --> developed countries: inflation, shrinking middle class, recession
• --> developing countries: social unrest, poverty, famine?

4.3 Causes of armed conflicts pt 2

Demographic

Economic

Cultural
Political

2. Economic causes

What could be an economic cause for an armed conflict?

Geopolitics = the geographical aspect of a conflict

- Strategic territory (hill, valley, junction trade routes, narrow sea street)

- Resources (minerals, fertile soils, fresh water)

Economic causes

A few famous geographers you need to know:

Darwin - Darwinism

All species of organisms arise and develop through the natural selection of small, inherited variations that increase the individual's ability to compete, survive, and reproduce.
The ones that survive are the most adaptable to change.

Survival of the fittest / Natural selection

Friedrich Ratzel - Lebensraum

This was a leading motivation of Nazi Germany to initiate WWII.
 Germany required a Lebensraum necessary for its survival.

Strong states grow like animals and flowers; weak states wither or die.

He believed that human migration was necessary to gain the territory and resources required for a people to thrive. To Ratzel, the most powerful and fittest civilizations would prevail. 

Lebensraum

all living things do need space, at some bare minimum, for their physical structure and the necessities of life: water, food, waste disposal, and so on. This requirement is manifested in the territorial behavior of the lower animals, including the forceful rejection of intruders when instinctive mechanisms (e.g., threat displays) fail to repel them.

Karl Haushofer - Raumorganismen

Ratzel viewed states as organisms.

With Ratzel the concept still had a neutral biological meaning, with Haushofer it acquired a racist-imperialist connotation.

 The 'Lebensraum' had to be arranged in such a way that it could guarantee complete self-sufficiency in times of war (autarky).

Mackinder - Heartland Theory

“whoever rules East Europe commands the Heartland; whoever rules the Heartland commands the World-Island; whoever rules the World-Island commands the World.” (Mackinder)

Whoever controlled Eastern Europe –the Heartland (Eastern Europe)—would control the world. The idea was that whoever gained control of Eastern Europe, controlled the Heartland –also known as the Pivot Area—and whoever controlled the Heartland, could easily gain control of the World Island (Africa and Eurasia)

Why is Eastern Europe the Heartland?

Eastern Europe holds some of the greatest resources in the world in terms of raw materials and agriculture – the basic ingredients you need to control a large military.

Many people thought world conquest would come through sea power, but this theory proposes that land power can lead to world power. Mackinder thought that after gaining control of the Heartland and all its resources, one could easily gain the World Island by controlling the coasts and warm water ports, or the key areas that made international trade possible.

Spykman - Rimland Theory

Eurasia's rimland, the coastal areas, is the key to controlling the World Island

He criticized Mackinder for overrating the Heartland as being of immense strategic importance due to its vast size, central geographical location and supremacy of land power rather than sea power. 

He assumed that the Heartland will not be a potential hub of Europe, because:

1. Western Russia was then an agrarian society

2. Bases of industrialization were found to the west of the Ural mountains.

3. This area is ringed to the north, east, south, and south-west by some of the greater obstacles to transportation (ice and freezing temperature, lowering mountains etc.).

4. There has never really been a simple land power–sea power opposition.

To Do:

Write down in your notebook:
2 cultural causes for an armed conflict

2 political causes for an armed conflict

4.3 Causes of armed conflicts pt 3

Demographic

Economic

Cultural
Political

3. Cultural Causes

Examples:

Rwanda: Hutu’s & Tutsi’s /  Ireland: Prostants & Catholics /  Syria: Syrian Army, ISIS, Kurds /  Nigeria: Boko Haram versus Catholic South

Historical examples:

USA: North & South / race riots /  Conflict NL – Spain /  Balkan conflict: Yugoslavia

Cultural Causes

Different cultures or religions within a country or between countries.

4. Political Causes

Political Causes

Authoritarian regimes / dictatorship:

People start to demonstrate for democracy, freedom, human rights, etc.